Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5
noise Almost none of the money behind the move came from wallets with a positive learned edge.
Who traded it
The largest wallets in the move, with the record CALIBRE held for them when it sealed the verdict. Open a wallet for its full live audit.
Of the 2 largest wallets here, none has a proven edge by CALIBRE's rules (z of 2 or more over at least 100 bets). 1 had no scored record yet. The label above describes edge CALIBRE had learned, not a claim that anyone behind this move is skilled.
| Wallet | Net bet on OVER | Edge held | z | Bets | Audit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x821d…cf16 | -$5 | none | n/a | 0 | no record yet |
| 0xd9c9…6686 | -$2 | +0.0 pts | -1.4 | 2 | too early |
"Edge held" is the wallet's edge after shrinkage for small samples and a cap of 8 points, in the NHL category. A positive number here is not evidence of skill unless z and the bet count clear the bar.
Receipt
- Sealed in Walrus Memory
- aH___M0vWeZI_-qu7z_NCPb-eQYKtU8TxElLkrIhI08Walruscan shows that this blob exists on Sui mainnet and the transactions that stored it, not the text inside it: Walrus Memory encrypts every memory. What it proves is that the record existed before the market resolved. The verdict above is that record, decrypted, and
pnpm verifyrebuilds the proof page from Walrus alone rather than from anything stored here. - Sui checkpoint
- 341385286 at 2026-11-04 00:50 UTCRead through Tatum's Sui gRPC gateway when the verdict was sealed.
- Sealed at
- 2026-11-04 00:50 UTC
- Judging model
- v2Model v2 caps each wallet's edge at 8 points and keeps the forecast within 10 points of the price.
- Memory key
- 0xdcc4d3f2267f58bc394681f2505561516684dd9f7e31ab8ae3ce478905394141:1793752800
Data source
Polymarket public API (fallback). The market was found through Tatum's Prediction Markets API and the checkpoint was read through Tatum's Sui gRPC. The trades behind the move came from Polymarket's public Data API because the watcher had used its hourly allowance of Tatum calls, a cap set to stretch the free plan (Tatum hourly call cap (18) reached).
Graded status
Graded Resolved OVER. The forecast scored a Brier of 0.027 against 0.027 for the market price (tied the price).
Sealed summary: NHL move up on "Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5" (OVER 71% to 84%) is noise: only 0% of the money behind it came from wallets with a learned edge. CALIBRE forecast 84% for OVER. Data: Polymarket public API (Tatum hourly call cap (18) reached)