Nebraska vs. Illinois
noise Almost none of the money behind the move came from wallets with a positive learned edge.
Square money
Share of the money pushing this move that came from wallets with a proven losing record, read from the wallet index when the verdict was sealed. The six biggest pushers were judged; the rest count as not judged, which is why the coverage matters.
Judged 86% of the pushing money
0% of the money pushing the price came from wallets with a proven losing record; 86% of it belonged to wallets the index could judge. Caution signal. In a replay of 11,975 moves, loser-driven moves did 3.1 pts worse for followers (p = 0.07); early evidence, not conclusive.
Who traded it
The largest wallets in the move, with the record CALIBRE held for them when it sealed the verdict. Open a wallet for its full live audit.
Of the 5 largest wallets here, none has a proven edge by CALIBRE's rules (z of 2 or more over at least 100 bets). 3 had no scored record yet. The label above describes edge CALIBRE had learned, not a claim that anyone behind this move is skilled.
| Wallet | Net bet on NEBRASKA | Edge held | z | Bets | X-ray |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xf28e…cab2 | -$21,622 | none | n/a | 0 | Too early |
| 0xe015…6ffd | -$10,749 | none | n/a | 0 | Too early |
| 0x2b46…684d | -$5,600 | none | n/a | 0 | Not judged |
| 0x958b…f826 | +$3,029 | +0.0 pts | -0.4 | 7 | No proven edge |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1 | +$1,194 | +0.0 pts | -1.0 | 1 | Too early |
"Edge held" is the wallet's edge after shrinkage for small samples and a cap of 8 points, in the CFB category. A positive number here is not evidence of skill unless z and the bet count clear the bar.
Receipt
- Sealed in Walrus Memory
- Ap-UBwITstWJEtwv4p0xz4x4ZMGtiVnzI3ljUScUWpEWalruscan shows that this blob exists on Sui mainnet and the transactions that stored it, not the text inside it: Walrus Memory encrypts every memory. What it proves is that the record existed before the market resolved. The verdict above is that record, decrypted, and
pnpm verifyrebuilds the proof page from Walrus alone rather than from anything stored here. - Sui checkpoint
- 342471531 at 2026-11-07 01:25 UTCRead through Tatum's Sui gRPC gateway when the verdict was sealed.
- Sealed at
- 2026-11-07 01:25 UTC
- Judging model
- v3Model v3 judges like v2 and also records the square-money share and each top wallet's X-ray label, read from the wallet index.
- Memory key
- 0xd8ce5cfd357ea7d7f34f2c40a568a54e70337509600f48c61ba66b7ad5d22477:1794014400
Data source
Polymarket public API (fallback). The market was found through Tatum's Prediction Markets API and the checkpoint was read through Tatum's Sui gRPC. The trades behind the move came from Polymarket's public Data API because the watcher had used its hourly allowance of Tatum calls, a cap set to stretch the free plan (Tatum hourly call cap (18) reached).
Graded status
Graded Resolved ILLINOIS. The forecast scored a Brier of 0.469 against 0.469 for the market price (beat the price).
Sealed summary: CFB move up on "Nebraska vs. Illinois" (NEBRASKA 58% to 69%) is noise: only 10% of the money behind it came from wallets with a learned edge. CALIBRE forecast 68% for NEBRASKA. Square money 0% of the money pushing the move (judged 86%). Data: Polymarket public API (Tatum hourly call cap (18) reached)