Ohio vs. Akron
contested Wallets with a positive learned edge were betting against the move.
Who traded it
The largest wallets in the move, with the record CALIBRE held for them when it sealed the verdict. Open a wallet for its full live audit.
Of the 5 largest wallets here, none has a proven edge by CALIBRE's rules (z of 2 or more over at least 100 bets). 4 had no scored record yet. The label above describes edge CALIBRE had learned, not a claim that anyone behind this move is skilled.
| Wallet | Net bet on OHIO | Edge held | z | Bets | Audit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xf28e…cab2 | +$85,164 | none | n/a | 0 | no record yet |
| 0xf68a…5b1b | +$39,253 | none | n/a | 0 | no record yet |
| 0x7e3a…3246 | -$6,424 | none | n/a | 0 | no record yet |
| 0x958b…f826 | +$3,219 | +0.0 pts | -0.5 | 26 | too early |
| 0xe65a…4a49 | +$2,600 | none | n/a | 0 | no record yet |
"Edge held" is the wallet's edge after shrinkage for small samples and a cap of 8 points, in the CFB category. A positive number here is not evidence of skill unless z and the bet count clear the bar.
Receipt
- Sealed in Walrus Memory
- 8ziq6oku4g-4aPfkHiqrEypJxyhf8c-a9yaj3aE_uAEWalruscan shows that this blob exists on Sui mainnet and the transactions that stored it, not the text inside it: Walrus Memory encrypts every memory. What it proves is that the record existed before the market resolved. The verdict above is that record, decrypted, and
pnpm verifyrebuilds the proof page from Walrus alone rather than from anything stored here. - Sui checkpoint
- 341380004 at 2026-11-04 00:29 UTCRead through Tatum's Sui gRPC gateway when the verdict was sealed.
- Sealed at
- 2026-11-04 00:29 UTC
- Judging model
- v2Model v2 caps each wallet's edge at 8 points and keeps the forecast within 10 points of the price.
- Memory key
- 0xc72ff3357e2e9d4e5642b12ba3ab10178bd699dd0fb0fc80ea230fe5171a98ed:1793751900
Data source
Polymarket public API (fallback). The market was found through Tatum's Prediction Markets API and the checkpoint was read through Tatum's Sui gRPC. The trades behind the move came from Polymarket's public Data API because the watcher had used its hourly allowance of Tatum calls, a cap set to stretch the free plan (Tatum hourly call cap (18) reached).
Graded status
Graded Resolved OHIO. The forecast scored a Brier of 0.060 against 0.060 for the market price (beat the price).
Sealed summary: CFB move down on "Ohio vs. Akron" (OHIO 82% to 76%) is contested: wallets with a learned edge were betting against it. CALIBRE forecast 76% for OHIO. Data: Polymarket public API (Tatum hourly call cap (18) reached)