Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner
contested Wallets with a positive learned edge were betting against the move.
Who traded it
The largest wallets in the move, with the record CALIBRE held for them when it sealed the verdict. Open a wallet for its full live audit.
Of the 5 largest wallets here, none has a proven edge by CALIBRE's rules (z of 2 or more over at least 100 bets). 5 had no scored record yet. The label above describes edge CALIBRE had learned, not a claim that anyone behind this move is skilled.
| Wallet | Net bet on FURIA | Edge held | z | Bets | Audit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xba43…c6c0 | -$2,909 | none | n/a | 0 | no record yet |
| 0x3471…f17e | +$1,479 | none | n/a | 0 | no record yet |
| 0xec98…afcd | +$1,405 | none | n/a | 0 | no record yet |
| 0x4214…db99 | +$1,400 | none | n/a | 0 | no record yet |
| 0xd537…0f7c | -$1,232 | none | n/a | 0 | no record yet |
"Edge held" is the wallet's edge after shrinkage for small samples and a cap of 8 points, in the CS2 category. A positive number here is not evidence of skill unless z and the bet count clear the bar.
Receipt
- Sealed in Walrus Memory
- qzGG7w0GPkedvWvu4OvpbqkDtVqFVKHEGx1uhspiPmoWalruscan shows that this blob exists on Sui mainnet and the transactions that stored it, not the text inside it: Walrus Memory encrypts every memory. What it proves is that the record existed before the market resolved. The verdict above is that record, decrypted, and
pnpm verifyrebuilds the proof page from Walrus alone rather than from anything stored here. - Sui checkpoint
- 341192049 at 2026-11-03 11:45 UTCRead through Tatum's Sui gRPC gateway when the verdict was sealed.
- Sealed at
- 2026-11-03 11:45 UTC
- Judging model
- v1Model v1 let a forecast sit far from the price. Walrus Memory is append-only, so it stays as sealed; v2 caps any forecast within 10 points of the price.
- Memory key
- 0xc6ba2de1cbfaca9e04c2a857a052444ced3f655e4634bc7412c82e158cae8cc3:1793706300
Data source
Polymarket public API (fallback). The market was found through Tatum's Prediction Markets API and the checkpoint was read through Tatum's Sui gRPC. The trades behind the move came from Polymarket's public Data API because Tatum's price history was empty for this market at the time (Tatum history was empty for this market; not asked again until 12:25 UTC).
Graded status
Graded Resolved FURIA. The forecast scored a Brier of 0.122 against 0.456 for the market price (beat the price).
Sealed summary: CS2 move down on "Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner" (FURIA 71% to 33%) is contested: wallets with a learned edge were betting against it. CALIBRE forecast 65% for FURIA. Data: Polymarket public API (Tatum history was empty for this market; not asked again until 12:25 UTC)