Texas vs. Missouri
contested Wallets with a positive learned edge were betting against the move.
Square money
Share of the money pushing this move that came from wallets with a proven losing record, read from the wallet index when the verdict was sealed. The six biggest pushers were judged; the rest count as not judged, which is why the coverage matters.
Judged 35% of the pushing money
0% of the money pushing the price came from wallets with a proven losing record; 35% of it belonged to wallets the index could judge. Caution signal. In a replay of 11,975 moves, loser-driven moves did 3.1 pts worse for followers (p = 0.07); early evidence, not conclusive.
Who traded it
The largest wallets in the move, with the record CALIBRE held for them when it sealed the verdict. Open a wallet for its full live audit.
Of the 5 largest wallets here, none has a proven edge by CALIBRE's rules (z of 2 or more over at least 100 bets). 2 had no scored record yet. The label above describes edge CALIBRE had learned, not a claim that anyone behind this move is skilled.
| Wallet | Net bet on TEXAS | Edge held | z | Bets | X-ray |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xdaef…54e9 | -$7,277 | +4.0 pts | 0.9 | 39 | No proven edge |
| 0x7c1b…85c8 | -$2,224 | none | n/a | 0 | Not judged |
| 0xf68a…5b1b | -$2,045 | +0.0 pts | -0.6 | 3 | No proven edge |
| 0x2b46…684d | -$255 | none | n/a | 0 | Not judged |
| 0x1b0f…b7ae | -$198 | +0.0 pts | -0.4 | 54 | No proven edge |
"Edge held" is the wallet's edge after shrinkage for small samples and a cap of 8 points, in the CFB category. A positive number here is not evidence of skill unless z and the bet count clear the bar.
Receipt
- Sealed in Walrus Memory
- bPWfYu9zsINBs6ch1DSRcfXW98thb2WscQVRRfAJzpAWalruscan shows that this blob exists on Sui mainnet and the transactions that stored it, not the text inside it: Walrus Memory encrypts every memory. What it proves is that the record existed before the market resolved. The verdict above is that record, decrypted, and
pnpm verifyrebuilds the proof page from Walrus alone rather than from anything stored here. - Sui checkpoint
- 342735391 at 2026-11-07 18:52 UTCRead through Tatum's Sui gRPC gateway when the verdict was sealed.
- Sealed at
- 2026-11-07 18:52 UTC
- Judging model
- v3Model v3 judges like v2 and also records the square-money share and each top wallet's X-ray label, read from the wallet index.
- Memory key
- 0xc1dff0d02d2741c74889c8f061eeb1574c1b3829a69c9f0dafce24a5a6bb3cca:1794077400
Data source
Polymarket public API (fallback). The market was found through Tatum's Prediction Markets API and the checkpoint was read through Tatum's Sui gRPC. The trades behind the move came from Polymarket's public Data API as a fallback (Tatum trades returned no fills for a market that just moved).
Graded status
Graded Resolved TEXAS. The forecast scored a Brier of 0.244 against 0.235 for the market price (lost to the price).
Sealed summary: CFB move up on "Texas vs. Missouri" (TEXAS 42% to 52%) is contested: wallets with a learned edge were betting against it. CALIBRE forecast 51% for TEXAS. Square money 0% of the money pushing the move (judged 35%). Data: Polymarket public API (Tatum trades returned no fills for a market that just moved)