Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
noise Almost none of the money behind the move came from wallets with a positive learned edge.
Who traded it
The largest wallets in the move, with the record CALIBRE held for them when it sealed the verdict. Open a wallet for its full live audit.
Of the 5 largest wallets here, none has a proven edge by CALIBRE's rules (z of 2 or more over at least 100 bets). 5 had no scored record yet. The label above describes edge CALIBRE had learned, not a claim that anyone behind this move is skilled.
| Wallet | Net bet on YES | Edge held | z | Bets | Audit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x2c33…0563 | +$8,201 | none | n/a | 0 | no record yet |
| 0xfe2d…da35 | -$2,047 | none | n/a | 0 | no record yet |
| 0xdc41…dd7e | -$1,065 | none | n/a | 0 | no record yet |
| 0xb0c8…fe7f | -$664 | none | n/a | 0 | no record yet |
| 0x01e6…e7e0 | -$647 | none | n/a | 0 | no record yet |
"Edge held" is the wallet's edge after shrinkage for small samples and a cap of 8 points, in the POLITICS category. A positive number here is not evidence of skill unless z and the bet count clear the bar.
Receipt
- Sealed in Walrus Memory
- VhGdTq91l7JW7TWi2TfIEdt-ON4Ea6n4YSDGR_euLH8Walruscan shows that this blob exists on Sui mainnet and the transactions that stored it, not the text inside it: Walrus Memory encrypts every memory. What it proves is that the record existed before the market resolved. The verdict above is that record, decrypted, and
pnpm verifyrebuilds the proof page from Walrus alone rather than from anything stored here. - Sui checkpoint
- 341395862 at 2026-11-04 01:32 UTCRead through Tatum's Sui gRPC gateway when the verdict was sealed.
- Sealed at
- 2026-11-04 01:32 UTC
- Judging model
- v2Model v2 caps each wallet's edge at 8 points and keeps the forecast within 10 points of the price.
- Memory key
- 0x3fd189cac9280dfc49a07115581e8d4c9e0b7e1c1e8580a44e9ff3d74e39cf2d:1793755500
Data source
Polymarket public API (fallback). The market was found through Tatum's Prediction Markets API and the checkpoint was read through Tatum's Sui gRPC. The trades behind the move came from Polymarket's public Data API because the watcher had used its hourly allowance of Tatum calls, a cap set to stretch the free plan (Tatum hourly call cap (18) reached).
Graded status
Not graded yet. When the market resolves, the grader scores the forecast against the price after the move and seals the outcome in the calibre-outcomes namespace.
Sealed summary: POLITICS move down on "Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" (YES 17% to 6%) is noise: only 3% of the money behind it came from wallets with a learned edge. CALIBRE forecast 6% for YES. Data: Polymarket public API (Tatum hourly call cap (18) reached)